Can you trust the poll numbers?

VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – Can you trust the numbers?  Polls just days before the Alberta election had a Wildrose win, but in reality a Tory majority is far from that. A polling analyst says BC parties should take note.

“In all likelihood, the polls were actually accurate in having Wildrose ahead in that final week,” explains Eric Grenier.

But no polls were done in the 48 hours before the vote.

“In this case, it is a bit of a black eye for the industry,” says Grenier. “But it does seem that there could have been a swing in the last couple days and since no one was there to record it, it didn’t come out in the media.”

Grenier says the very last poll that came out predicted a shift coming, “On Sunday, a poll was released that show that the gap was closing. It injected a little bit of uncertainty into what would happen.”

Four days ago, the Wildrose were predicted to win a majority. Instead, they won 17 seats. He says such a shift is a surprise, but it reminds parties that things change once you actually have to check a box.

Grenier adds negative press often takes a few days to show up in public opinion polls and parties need to make sure to have the right platform and candidates so they don’t suffer a last-minute collapse on voting day.  He acknowledges the controversy over Wildrose candidates came at the same time as their polling numbers plateaued and started to dip back down.

He says often the parties have more accurate polling because they do it daily.

“Some internal polls that have come out from the Tories themselves have shown that they were tracking that this was seeming to happen in the final days.”

If there’s a message to local parties, like the BC Conservatives who are in a similar position to the Wildrose, it’s that they do their own polling, find the best way to deal with those public numbers in the media and to just get the vote out – no matter what the survey says.