Protection from rising sea levels would cost $9.5 billion

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VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – The cost of protecting Metro Vancouver from rising sea levels has been estimated at $9.5 billion.  That number is from a new report titled  ‘Cost of Adaption – Sea Dikes and Alternative Strategies.’

The dollar figure is what the report estimates will need to be spent between now and 2100 in order to protect about 250 kilometres of coastline across the Lower Mainland.  The number includes a $3 billion contingency fund.

The report offers two broad categories for dealing with rising coastal water: (1) structural and (2) non-structural.  The first option includes building or repairing dikes, seagates, and other protective barriers.  Non-structural options are broken down into three sub-categories: accommodate, retreat, avoid.

Accommodation, in this context, means accepting occasional flooding and taking steps to protect infrastructure like utilities, roads, and buildings.  ‘Retreat’ means moving back from flood-prone areas over time, eventually removing development and returning land to its natural state. ‘Avoid’ means preventing development in flood-prone areas in the first place.

There are concerns the $9.5 billion estimate might be too low.

“I see two things.  First of all, I’m pleased that the provincial government is starting to take this issue seriously,” says UBC Professor Michael Byers, who studies climate changes.  “Sea-level rise is one of the known consequences of climate change and obviously in a place like Metro Vancouver, with the Fraser River delta, sea-level rise has potentially very serious consequences.”

The professor calls the report “timely” but he seems doubtful the numbers will stand the test of time.  “The numbers will obviously surprise some people – start to talk about $9.5 billion to deal with a projected one-metre rise in sea levels by the end of the century.”

“The second point is that one metre is on the cautious side of things, in terms of what might happen by the end of the century,” he adds.  “There are some very serious world-recognized climate scientists who are now talking about seeing two or three or even four metres within that time.”

Byers says if those scientists are right, then the cost of dealing with rising sea levels will obviously cost a lot more.  “Potentially $50 – $100 billion dollars,” he says.  “And that raises questions about how you might pay for that, or whether you might be better off putting all that money into actually slowing climate change.”

The report was published by the Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations.  Minister Steve Thomson says it’s not meant to predict exactly what will happen, or the precise cost.  “So what this does is set out a planning process and a discussion process that looks at how over the long term we’ll be able to address the potential rise in sea levels.”

Cost of Adaptation was written following consultation between the province and municipal governments.  It follows up on a 2011 report called Climate Change Adaptation Guidelines for Sea Dikes and Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use.

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