Speculation growing over accuracy of election polls

VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – The pollsters are in the hot seat for getting it so wrong. A Liberal majority government, which no one predicted in the days leading up to election night.

York University Political Scientist Denis Pilon says the system needs to be re-evaluated.

“As people have migrated to cell phones, the ability of pollsters to get an accurate reading of people is much harder. Polling tactics and strategies have to change, or maybe we have to give up on the idea that polls can give us these types of answers,” he says.

Pilon also believes pollster numbers were skewed because people didn’t want to admit they were going to vote Liberal.

“In this case, I think because of the HST so many people were angry, particularly in non-Lower Mainland areas of the province. So, when pollsters called people they said ‘no, I hate the Liberals’ but then went out and voted for them anyway,” explains Pilon.

He says Clark has officially silenced her critics while it doesn’t look good for Dix to stay on as Leader of the NDP.

Pollster Steve Mossop with Insights West says there was an early hint after the debate. “We found the winner was actually a statistical tie. I think the pollsters, including us, woke up at that point and thought ‘wow, this is closer than what we thought.'”

Mossop says since that moment, the gap began to shorten so they stopped polling because it became to close to call.

He thinks it was undecided voters that changed the course of the election.

“We saw, after the debate, that there was still about 15 per cent of the population that was undecided. Those people were leaning towards Liberal, as well. It really could have been swayed by the undecided changing their mind last minute or coming out to vote,” he explains.

Mossop concedes that every methodology has its downside, but doesn’t feel that played a role in last night’s results. “I really feel it was a combination of the undecided and people changing their mind at the last minute. There was enough polls to show the race was tightening and it really became too close to call at the last minute.”