Hard to rely on ridership forecasts ahead of spring vote: expert
Posted March 5, 2015 8:41 am.
This article is more than 5 years old.
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – The ‘yes’ side in Metro Vancouver’s transportation plebiscite has been tossing around some pretty big ridership predictions to try and convince you to get on-board. But not everyone thinks we should take those numbers at face value.
We’ve seen it before — estimates that end up being above or below the actual number of people who choose to take a particular SkyTrain line or bus route.
The Vancouver Sun reports a professor at UBC’s Sauder School of Business says accurately forecasting how much the numbers will go up can be challenging.
Robin Lindsey says predicting the cost of a project can be way off as well and he says it often ends up being about 25 per cent more than the amount forecast.
The number of people who ride the Canada Line is way above what it was predicted to be before it opened six years ago. On the flip side, the Expo Line is still not at full capacity, despite it having been built nearly three decades ago.
In the next couple of weeks, you will receive your ballot in the mail. The vote runs from March 16th until May 29th.
