All eyes on Nanaimo today; by-election could affect all of B.C.
Posted January 30, 2019 5:30 am.
Last Updated January 30, 2019 8:00 am.
This article is more than 5 years old.
VICTORIA (NEWS 1130) – Polls in the Nanaimo by-election are now open. The result could end up sending the entire province back to the ballot box, not even two years since the last vote.
“We’re deciding, potentially, the fate of this government,” political scientist Stewart Prest said.
With the stakes so high, what has been considered an NDP stronghold doesn’t look so safe today.
“A Green result or an NDP result leads to the status quo. But a Liberal result throws us into all sorts of uncertainty,” Prest explained.
“It’s not clear the government will fall, but it’s also not clear the government will be able to get anything done going forward. So, we may be in a period of partial political paralysis or we may be back to the polls in a few months.”
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The Nanaimo seat became vacant when Leonard Krog resigned in November, after being elected the city’s mayor the month before. Krog had been an NDP MLA for 18 years.
Could the Greens play spoiler?
“They pull some votes from the Liberals and the NDP, so it’s a significant factor,” Prest said. “But again, it can push in different directions. There’s just so much uncertainty going on in this race.”
A BC Liberal win would have the party at 43 seats, tying the NDP-Green alliance. Prest says even if we see that result and don’t end up having an early election, that situation would make thing interesting at the legislature, with the speaker — an ousted Liberal — breaking ties.
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Prest says it’s unclear where the votes will be at the final count.
“It has been an NDP riding for awhile. But these are competent candidates and I think it’s a real race. I don’t feel comfortable predicting a result, to be honest.”
With an unusually high 20 per cent of eligible votes returned in early ballots, Prest says it’s clear each party has spared little effort getting confirmed supporters to cast their votes.
– With files from Denise Wong
