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Conservatives have advantage as 'barbeque circuit' campaigning for fall election begins: expert

Last Updated Jun 24, 2019 at 12:08 pm PDT

FILE - Conservative leader Andrew Scheer speaks to supporters before a door knocking event for volunteers in the Kanata suburb of Ottawa on Thursday, April 25, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang
Summary

David Coletto with Abacus Data believes the Conservatives have the upper hand as campaigning begins

He says the unpredictability will likely come from the left, thanks to a big split of progressive votes

The Liberals could use second place to their advantage by tapping into progressive fears

OTTAWA (NEWS 1130) – With summer officially underway, federal politicians have spread across the country to hit up the so-called barbeque circuit, looking to secure your vote ahead of the election in the fall.

David Coletto with Abacus Data believes the Conservatives have the upper hand as campaigning begins, with the sun shining on Andrew Scheer and his party. But while the Tories are front runners, there is still a lot of unpredictability to come.

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“Got a four to five point lead in most polls. If you look at who their voters are, they’re typically a little bit older, they’re more motivated to vote. I think the Conservatives have the advantage.”

He says the unpredictability will likely come from the left, thanks to a big split of progressive votes between the Liberals, NDP and the Greens. The Liberals could use second place to their advantage by tapping into progressive fears.

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“They can make the claim that the Conservatives are looking likely to win, so that can help consolidate those progressive voters. This is not a Conservative slam dunk victory. This is going to be a hard, competitive election.”

Coletto says he expects some fierce campaigning on all fronts ahead of the October vote.