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Election poll shows Liberals and Conservatives in dead heat

Last Updated Sep 5, 2019 at 4:04 pm PDT

The Conservative Party of Canada and Liberal Party of Canada are in a dead heat as the federal election approaches. (Source: Abacus Data)
Summary

With the election just over a month away, a poll by Abacus Data shows a deadlock between the Liberals and Conservatives

Tories have 34 per cent support with the Grits at 33, which is within the margin of error

Trends in B.C. are similar to the rest of the country

OTTAWA (NEWS 1130) — It remains a dead heat as we approach the official launch of the federal election campaign.

The latest poll from Abacus Data finds if a vote were held today the Conservatives and the Liberals would essentially be tied.

The Tories have 34 per cent support, while the Grits have 33, which is within the margin of error.

The NDP is sitting in third with 17 per cent, and the Greens have 9 per cent support. Bloc Quebecois has 4 per cent while People’s Party of Canada has 3 per cent.

Regional support differs

The pollsters note that it’s becoming more challenging to understand the flow of the campaign without looking at the provinces where Conservatives see the most support, as compared to the rest of the country.

Conservatives see a 38-point lead over the Liberals in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The Tories haven’t dipped lower than 50 per cent support, and Liberals have never been above 23 per cent in the past year in those provinces. However, the Liberals hold a 5 point lead in the rest of the country.

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In B.C., the national trend holds steady, with the Conservatives leading 31 per cent and the Liberals at 29 per cent.

The NDP sees slightly higher support in B.C. and Saskatchewan and Manitoba than national trends at 22 per cent support, while the Greens see the highest in B.C. and the Atlantic provinces with 14 per cent and 13 per cent support respectively.

Would you consider this party?

The pool of potential Liberal voters is up four points since April, sitting at 52 per cent, and 48 per cent would consider the Conservatives.

Potential for New Democrats and Greens is also high, with 44 per cent saying they would consider NDP and 41 would consider casting a Green vote.

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Who would you prefer as prime minister?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau still sees the highest preference at 35 per cent, and 32 per cent say they would prefer Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Green Leader Elizabeth May are tied both at 14 per cent.

Abacus Data polled 4,569 Canadians on August 28. The margin of error for a probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.5 per cent,19 times out of 20. Data is weighted according to census data to match Canada’s population according to age, gender, education level and region.

The federal election will be held on October 21.