New ventilators can’t come fast enough, says pandemic expert

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – The federal government has announced thousands of new ventilators are on the way for Canada’s hospitals and one expert says they are desperately needed.

“The latest numbers I’ve seen in Ontario are that about 25 per cent of the ventilators that are in use are being used by COVID-19 patients,” says Dionne Aleman, a professor of Industrial engineering at the University of Toronto who specializes in pandemic modelling and simulations.

“I don’t know what the numbers are for B.C. but that’s what we are seeing in Ontario right now and that’s really quite an alarming rate because we are still growing exponentially in those numbers of infections which means that this demand for ventilators will only continue to grow.”

She notes the situation isn’t isolated to one province or another.

“It’s the same across the country, so really these ventilators can’t come fast enough because our system in general operates at 90 per cent capacity,” Aleman tells NEWS 1130. “Ventilator usage is really no different, so there are not a lot of unused ventilators sitting around just waiting to be used by COVID-19 patients or any other patients that might need a ventilator for whatever other normal reasons that continue to happen and put pressure on our healthcare systems.”

Aleman says that is why it is vitally important for all Canadians to keep taking measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

“Even if you catch the disease and you’re young and healthy – it might not be much more of an experience than a common cold for you – someone else who you infect might end up needing a ventilator and that’s where our healthcare system can really start to collapse.”

Ottawa has announced more than 1,500 ventilators are on the way with plans to secure up to 4,000 more, many to be manufactured in Canada.

Another 60 million N95 masks are also on order for healthcare workers treating and fighting COVID-19, expected to be delivered this week.

Second wave of infection

Aleman also warns a second wave of COVID-19 in Canada will be tough to prevent.

“Really every pandemic that we have data for, going back to the 1918 Spanish flu, shows that there is always a second wave and that it is often worse than the first wave. That’s because once restrictions are lifted, once people are moving around again and feeling comfortable, there are probably a lot of people who are actually still infected who then expose themselves to a lot of other people and then things just take off rapidly once again.”

She says to prevent a second wave of infection, Canadians must continue to be extremely disciplined about social distancing.

“And we have to do it as a population united. It doesn’t take that many people – just a sizeable minority – to not take these physical distancing measures seriously for the disease to spread among them. Then they take it back into their households and things can take off again,” Aleman explains.

“We can still see a second wave happen.”