B.C.’s pandemic curve below initial projections, some restrictions could be lifted next month

VICTORIA (NEWS 1130) — B.C.’s epidemic curve is well below initial projections and COVID-19 cases have plateaued and even started to decline, according to modelling numbers released Friday by the province.

However, travel restrictions could remain in place for up to 18 more months, while an eventual return to school could look different than what students are used to.

Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry suggests an easing of some health and safety restrictions could occur by mid-May, but cautioned any changes will only be modifications of what’s in place now.

The modelling numbers show how B.C. is doing compared to other provinces and countries and that early restrictions here are working.

“We are experiencing a slowing of our rate of infections and we want that to continue,” Henry says.

BC's PHO giving the latest modelling numbers.
The short version is: BC is doing well. We are not safe enough to life restrictions yet. Where we are at mid-May will tell the tale of what comes next. #bcpoli #covid19 @NEWS1130

— LizaYuzda (@LizaYuzda) April 17, 2020

But, she adds, B.C. is looking at a year to 18 months before people are travelling again for work or fun.

Schools will likely be able to resume at some point, Henry says, but maybe with staggering students across hours and days so there is only a limited number together at any given time.

One of the highest priorities, she adds, is for non-urgent surgeries and diagnostic tests to start up again.

For people who have wondered about testing for the virus here in BC. The first test done here was January 20th.
Here's a look at some of the numbers – broad look and comparing last month's modelling to actual.#bcpoli #covid19 @NEWS1130 pic.twitter.com/tGhSzPloo9

— LizaYuzda (@LizaYuzda) April 17, 2020

While Henry says some health and safety restrictions could lifted by the middle of next month, many factors need to be considered first: consistent decline of cases and hospitalization; a serology test; wider contact tracing capabilities (this requires a large, trained team); and enough personal protection equipment for medical procedures to happen safely.

The most recent figures show of the more than 1,600 recorded COVID-19 cases in B.C., the recovery rate is 60 per cent.

The modelling report shows the province’s actual case and intensive care admission rates have been far below what was their potential, based on the experience and data from other jurisdictions, including Northern Italy and Hubei.

“This, too, appears to be plateauing with cautious optimism of a downward trend,” the report says of B.C.

Actual new cases in Northern Italy surpassed 1,000 a day in early April, when the number of critical care patients there was more than 500 a day.

B.C. recorded 43 new cases on Friday and no new deaths.

There has been 78 deaths total in the province, the majority being seniors and linked to care homes.

Of the total cases, 119 people remain in hospital, with 52 in intensive care.

According to the report, the median age of those hospitalized is 68, and the median age of those who have died is 86.

Of all the cases, 36 per cent had pre-existing health conditions, such as diabetes, cancer or respiratory disease.

Every health region in British Columbia has patients with COVID-19.

The number of reported new cases has declined in April from March, according to the report, while causes of infection from travel have been reduced greatly since stricter controls, such as requiring mandatory self-isolation plans upon returning from aboard, were implemented.

The report also points out that hospitals in B.C. have increased critical care capacity, with more than 500 vacant beds, mainly by decreasing elective surgeries.

“Surge beds identified even surpass the highest Italian modelled curves,” says the report.

“The modelling we released today clearly shows the resiliency and 100-per-cent commitment of everyone in B.C. is having a positive impact. We are bending the curve,” says a joint release from Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix.

“Our new normal in the months ahead will be a modification of what we are doing now. The physical distancing measures, staying home if you are ill and following good hand hygiene will continue. And, it is vital that we continue to show care and compassion for those around us.”

For the full report, read here:

EMBARGOED Technical Briefing - 04172020