Federal government to release new coronavirus projections as provinces plan for reopening

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – As parts of the country start to take small steps towards normalcy, the federal government is set to release another set of projections outlining the possible outcomes of a pandemic which has already killed more than 2,700 Canadians.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday distancing measures meant to cut the spread of COVID-19 are working, but he noted Canada isn’t in the clear just yet.

He added the current coronavirus crisis remains one of the most serious public health emergencies in history, and said during his daily briefing that until it’s under better control, restrictions will have to be in place.

The last set of numbers we saw was released on April 9. The grim data suggested in the best case scenario, if Canada keeps strong controls in place or strengthens them, 2.5 to five per cent of the population will become infected, which is roughly 934,000 to nearly 1.9-million people. That, officials said, could lead to between 11,000 and 22,000 deaths.

However, that was all the long term outlook. In the short term, Canada’s top doctor warned of between 22,580 to 31,850 positive cases of the virus by April 16, with 500 to 700 potential deaths by the same time.

In reality, the country’s actual case count for that time frame was at the higher end of the range projected, with the number of deaths far higher. Canada saw just more than 30,000 cases of the coronavirus by April 16, with 1,196 deaths and 9,729 cases resolved.

The statistics might sound terrifying, however, at the time, chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam warned projections are not a crystal ball, but that their short term numbers were pretty close.

Long term, the very best case scenario provided was that two and a half percent of the population would become infected with COVID-19 by the time this is all over, and only with strong social distancing measures in place that everyone follows. Without these measures, it was predicted up to 80 per cent of people might be infected.

In any case, Tam warned a total return to normal is still a ways off.

“Even once we’re past the peak of this first wave, and on the downward trend on the other side of the curve, it’ll be equally critical to keep up with our control measures,” she said.

Tam noted earlier this month that in terms of a timeline, the pandemic could peak in early summer and dwindle by the fall, but only if we keep strong control measures in place — and that’s still even and “if.”

Weaker controls, she warned, could push the pandemic into spring of next year.

The updated federal projections come as provinces, like Ontario, announced plans to gradually reopen their economies. It also comes as B.C. sees a “flattening of the curve,” with the rate of transmission of COVID-19 slowing down.

Tuesday’s data and modeling briefing will begin at 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time. You can watch the livestream on our website.

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