New models show COVID-19 progress but with ‘hotspots’ to monitor: Trudeau

OTTAWA — After a difficult spring, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says new federal models show continued progress in suppressing COVID-19.

“We still have some hotspots in some parts of the country, but nationally, the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is declining over time,” he says.

Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam says despite hotspots in Saskatchewan, Montreal, Toronto and Windsor, the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are declining.

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“As the epidemic has slowed, the incident rates have steadily declined in all age groups, though the decline has been relatively slower in younger age groups,” she says. “[Declining rates] all illustrate the steady decline in COVID-19 activity since the peak of the epidemic in late April. Monitoring these indicators tell us that our public health measures have been successful in slowing the transmission.”

That shows in the projections for the short term ahead. At worst, Canada can expect just under 5,000 new cases and 343 new deaths in the next two weeks.

On new modelling, Prime Minister @JustinTrudeau says we continue to move in right direction. There are still hotspots but nationally the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are declining. #COVID19 #cdnpoli

— Cormac Mac Sweeney (@cmaconthehill) June 29, 2020

“It is even more important that Canadians continue with collective efforts to maintain physical distancing and good hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control,” Tam adds.

While the growth in the number of COVID-19 infections is slowing, Trudeau is urging Canadians to remain vigilant, adding now is not the time to get complacent.

“As we start to reopen parts of the economy, we must continue to follow local public health guidelines to keep each other safe,” he says.

Latest federal #COVID19 projection for cases/deaths until July 12 #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/GKek3tnKzl

— Cormac Mac Sweeney (@cmaconthehill) June 29, 2020

As of Monday morning, Canada had recorded just more than 103,000 cases and 8,500 deaths, which is lower than the last modelling projections at the start of the month.

Officials warn if Canada reopens too quickly or carelessly, we could see an explosive second wave.

“We need to continue to be careful, even as we reopen, so that we don’t lose all the significant progress we’ve made through some very difficult sacrifices by Canadians over the past months,” Trudeau says.

Meanwhile, Trudeau points to a spike in cases in the U.S. as an example of why we need to maintain our protective measures and restrictions.

He also says the government has the fiscal capacity to deal with a possible second wave, despite the record spending on emergency measures so far since the spring.