Long-time researcher says 2020 U.S. election predictions not a ‘polling failure’

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VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) — Pollsters predicting Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s win in the U.S. Presidential Election might not have been as far off as initially thought, according to a public opinion expert.

Christopher Adams, a certified market researcher and political scientist based at the University of Manitoba’s St. Paul’s College, says this isn’t the same as the prediction failure in 2016. Polls then suggested Hilary Clinton was leading the election, only for President Donald Trump to win.

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“I wouldn’t consider this a polling failure as we did see four years ago when Trump surprised people with his victories in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin,” he says.

“I don’t know if one could say the pollsters were wrong. You have to ask, ‘Well, which pollsters? Who were the spin doctors,’ so you have to break it down by state by state because each state is an election in itself.”

Adams explains the numbers will vary from state to state “because each state is an election in itself.”

He says predictions for Biden to win don’t seem as far off now.

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Adams notes the mail-in ballots were mostly sent in by Democratic supporters, then there was a skew towards Trump in the election returns Tuesday night, with another late count for Democrats to follow.

“The polls were a little bit wrong in terms of the amount of support Biden was getting over Trump, but as we’re seeing the mail-in ballots being counted earlier this morning is showing the polls might not be as wrong as we thought last night.”

The veteran election watcher points to another factor in polling — some voters are reluctant to tell researchers who they really want to win.

“Particularly with Trump, I think people are a couple of things. They might be more resistant to just answering their phone or responding to an online survey, but secondly, they might just dismiss the idea of being polled for their vote,” he says.

“I don’t think people are really lying to the pollsters and there’s a term called the ‘Shy Trumpers.’ Those on the right side of the centre, ideologically, they have a lower propensity to admit who they’re voting for.”

He says similar trends are happening in Canada, with voters reluctant to share their Conservative slant.

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Neither Biden nor Trump has secured the 270 electoral college votes to become president. However, Biden has said he expects to win, and Trump has threatened to go to the Supreme Court to decide the election. He has already filed lawsuits in Pennsylvania and Michigan and asked for a recount in Wisconsin.

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