VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) — While many economists projected problems for the housing market during the pandemic, Metro Vancouver is on pace for a record year as home sales have surged.
But our region could be heading for a pullback next year, according to the BC Real Estate Association.
The housing group is forecasting a 19.1 per cent sales drop locally, by fall of next year — though prices are still expected to move higher slightly by 2.1 per cent in the Metro Vancouver area.
“Prices have run up pretty considerably in a lot of markets, and that kind of naturally starts to burn out the market a little bit as we kind of stretch affordability,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said when describing the provincial picture. “We saw that in 2016 as well as things really slowed down once we kind of hit a certain level of prices.”
Ogmundson says ultimately the record setting sales have to come to an end eventually, both in the Metro Vancouver area and beyond.
“We’re at a level of activity where things have to slow down,” Ogmundson said. “You can’t be on the kind of pace that we’re on forever. Eventually these things kind of do burn themselves out.”
Ogmundson added the slow down we may see would actually be a very strong year in a different time.
“We’re coming off a record pace, but it’s still a pretty robust level of sales,” he said.
Across the province, the BCREA expects we’ll see residential sales fall to 100,150 units in 2021 from the 125,600 projected for this year.