Political future for some Canadian leaders may be up in air following status quo election

OTTAWA (NEWS 1130) — With Justin Trudeau failing to win a majority government and the other leaders failing to unseat him there’s speculation some jobs may be on the line.

While none of the leaders have so far indicated they plan to step down, the decision may not be in their hands. UBC political science professor Max Cameron explains that parties often do soul searching after an election — and sometimes it ends with the leader stepping down.

After the last federal election in 2019, former Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer waited two months before announcing he would be resigning. But Cameron says he thinks O’Toole performed well in many ways.

“One of the real surprises in this election was Erin O’toole’s tools pivot to the center. And it really has done a lot to put the shadow of [Stephen] Harper behind him … And I think, he’s in many ways, a very appealing leader for the Conservatives,” he says.

However, Cameron points out “politics is pretty punishing on people who don’t win,” so O’Toole’s leadership may be questioned.

“There are questions about leadership that will cause the parties then does think about how they can sort of keep the ship of state moving steadily forward while they set up their internal issues. But my own hope would be that Mr. O’Toole will be given another chance.”

As for Trudeau, who is now the tenth-longest serving prime minister in Canadian history, Cameron says the PM will have to think about if he’s in a solid enough position he could fight for a fourth election.

“And then to think about when that will happen,” he says. “Unfortunately, there is a bit of a risk that we’re now in this world of permanent campaigning in which over the next few months, it could be a year, could be a year and a half of the party positions itself to go again into an election.”

Meanwhile, Nelson Wiseman, political science professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, says Trudeau will have many other opportunities after her steps down and considering he hasn’t been in politics his whole life, “that’s a personal choice, too, for him.”

“He may very well stay on, he may stay on for a year, may stay on for two years, he may want to stay on as long as he can. But I don’t know what’s in his head. He’s got a family. He’s now been in this job for six years — the longest job he’s had in his life,” Wiseman says.

Cameron suggests it could be a good time for Trudeau to allow a successor to get comfortable in the job and run in the next election but he adds, “My hunch is [Trudeau’s] a fighter that he’ll certainly try to stay.”

O’Toole and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh both say they plan to stay on as leaders while Green party leader Annamie Paul hasn’t addressed her future.